Asteroid 2024 YR4; Increasing Chance of Earth Impact in 2032
An asteroid measuring up to 300 feet across, named 2024 YR4, has a small but increasing chance of colliding with Earth on 22 December 2032, according to NASA. Initially detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on 27 December 2024, the space rock’s probability of impact has risen from 1.2% to 2.3% (1 in 43) as of February 2025. While the odds remain low, NASA continues to monitor the asteroid’s trajectory, noting that further observations could either rule out the risk or confirm an increased likelihood of impact.
The asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in size, would likely cause localised damage if it were to strike Earth, but it is not large enough to pose a global threat. In the event of an impact, it would travel at approximately 38,000 mph, according to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies. Ground-based telescopes are currently tracking the asteroid, with visibility expected to fade by April 2025 before it becomes observable again in 2028. NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is also set to assess the asteroid’s size and characteristics in March 2025.
Astronomers stress that while the current probability of impact is low, continued monitoring is essential to refine predictions. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) has issued an alert to gather more data on 2024 YR4, with efforts focused on determining its composition, size, and exact trajectory. If the asteroid’s threat level increases, NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which successfully altered an asteroid’s orbit in 2022, could serve as a model for potential deflection efforts. However, such missions require significant lead time and precise knowledge of the asteroid’s properties.
For now, the likelihood of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth remains minimal, and further observations are expected to provide clarity in the coming months.
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