NASA Reports Potential Earth Impact by 'City-Killer' Asteroid in 2032
NASA has reported that asteroid 2024 YR4, a “city-killer” asteroid with an estimated diameter of 177 feet (54 metres), has a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on 22 December 2032. Discovered on 27 December 2023 by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, the asteroid has been closely monitored by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN). While its size is insufficient to cause global devastation, it could potentially destroy a major city upon impact.
The probability of collision has fluctuated since its discovery, initially rising from 1% to 3.1%, but experts predict it will likely decrease as more data is gathered. Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the Planetary Society, reassured the public, stating there is “no need for alarm” as the odds are expected to drop to zero. A viral simulation by 3D animator Alvaro Gracia Montoya depicts the asteroid’s potential impact, highlighting its destructive capabilities.
Despite the current risk assessment, there is a 96.9% chance the asteroid will miss Earth entirely. Additionally, there is a 0.3% chance it could hit the Moon instead. Astronomers face challenges in refining predictions as the asteroid will soon pass behind the Sun, limiting observations until 2028. Further analysis of its size and composition, potentially aided by the James Webb Space Telescope, will determine the severity of any potential impact. For now, experts remain cautiously optimistic, emphasising that the risk is minimal.
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