NASA Updates Risk Assessment for Asteroid 2024 YR4's Potential Earth Impact
NASA has revised the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032, with current estimates placing the chance at approximately 1-in-32, or 3.1 per cent. The asteroid, which measures between 40 and 90 metres in size, has been classified as a “city killer” due to its potential to release energy equivalent to 7.7 megatonnes of TNT upon impact. This could cause significant destruction if it were to strike a populated area.
The asteroid’s trajectory has been closely monitored by NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), with updated observations refining its path. While the odds of impact have fluctuated, the latest data suggests a slight increase in risk compared to earlier estimates. However, it remains highly probable that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely.
2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth and is expected to disappear from view in April, limiting further observations until 2028. Scientists are racing to gather as much data as possible before it becomes unobservable, as this information is crucial for refining predictions and assessing potential mitigation strategies.
The asteroid is ranked as a 3 on the Torino Scale, which evaluates both the likelihood of impact and the potential damage. While a collision would not be globally catastrophic, it could have devastating local consequences, particularly in densely populated regions. Efforts to study the asteroid’s composition and trajectory continue, with the aim of better understanding its potential threat.
Nasa upgrades chances of ‘city killer’ asteroid hitting Earth in disaster event
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www.independent.co.uk
Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 have fallen again
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www.newscientist.com
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