Asteroid 2024 YR4; A Growing Concern for Earth Impact in 2032
An asteroid named 2024 YR4, measuring between 130 and 300 feet across, has a small but increasing chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. NASA estimates the current probability of impact at 2.3%, or 1 in 43, up from an initial estimate of 1.2% in late January. While the odds remain extremely low, the asteroid’s trajectory is being closely monitored by astronomers using ground-based telescopes and NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile, 2024 YR4 is classified as a “Near-Earth Object” (NEO). If it were to strike Earth, the asteroid would likely cause localized damage rather than a global catastrophe, traveling at a high velocity of approximately 38,000 mph. NASA emphasizes that the asteroid’s “impact hazard” could eventually be ruled out as more data is collected, but the probability of impact may also rise as observations continue.
Astronomers are working to refine the asteroid’s orbit and size, with the James Webb Space Telescope set to observe it in March 2025. The asteroid will remain visible to ground-based observatories until April 2025, after which it will be too faint to track until 2028. While the situation is being closely watched, NASA and other experts stress that the likelihood of impact remains minimal, and further observations are expected to reduce the risk to zero.
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