Asteroid 2024 YR4; Potential Earth Impact in 2032
An asteroid named 2024 YR4, measuring between 130 and 300 feet across, has a 2.3% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, according to NASA. Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in Chile, the space rock’s probability of impact has increased from an initial estimate of 1.2% in late January 2025. While the odds remain low, NASA continues to monitor its trajectory, noting that the asteroid’s “impact hazard” could eventually be ruled out as more data becomes available.
The asteroid, which is comparable in size to the one responsible for the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia, would likely cause localized damage rather than a global catastrophe if it were to strike Earth. The Tunguska event flattened 80 million trees over 2,150 square kilometers, releasing energy equivalent to 50 million tons of TNT. Similarly, 2024 YR4 could explode midair or create an impact crater, depending on its composition.
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to assess the asteroid’s size in March 2025, which will help refine predictions. Ground-based telescopes will continue tracking the asteroid until April, after which it will become too faint to observe until June 2028. The asteroid is currently rated at 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating a localized impact risk that could be reduced to zero with further observations.
Scientists emphasize that while the probability of impact is low, continued monitoring is essential to ensure accurate predictions and preparedness. The asteroid’s trajectory and characteristics will be closely studied in the coming years to determine the level of threat it poses.
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