Asteroid 2024 YR4; Potential Earth Impact in 2032 Sparks Global Attention

2025-03-01

A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has drawn significant attention due to its potential to collide with Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, was first detected by NASA-funded astronomers using the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile in late December 2024. Initial calculations suggested a 1.3% chance of impact, but updated data from NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency (ESA) raised the probability to 2.3%, or a one-in-43 chance. However, experts emphasize that the risk is likely to decrease as more data is collected.

The asteroid’s size is comparable to the Tunguska asteroid, which flattened 830 square miles of Siberian forest in 1908. If 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, it could cause significant regional damage, though it is not considered a global threat. NASA and ESA have both classified the asteroid as a Torino Scale 3 object, indicating an unusual but not catastrophic risk.

Astronomers are confident that further observations will refine the asteroid’s trajectory, reducing the likelihood of impact to virtually zero. Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, noted that most such objects eventually pass by harmlessly. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in 2022 demonstrated that deflecting an asteroid of this size is feasible if necessary.

The asteroid’s next close approach in 2028 will provide an opportunity for more precise tracking. Until then, scientists will continue to monitor 2024 YR4, using ground-based telescopes and potentially the James Webb Space Telescope to gather additional data. While the asteroid’s current trajectory raises concerns, the global planetary defense system is designed to detect and mitigate such threats, ensuring Earth remains protected from potentially hazardous objects.

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